MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Thorrenc

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:005,14,85,44,55,40,95,1
01:004,94,64,84,55,71,24,8
02:004,84,74,94,45,81,44,8
03:004,54,75,24,761,54,7
04:004,655,54,84,60,94,8
05:004,55,24,74,961,54,9
06:004,25,34,74,86,11,94,8
07:004,25,54,94,86,32,14,9
08:0055,34,455,51,15
09:005,35,45,55,37,21,95,4
10:006,55,86,36,48,72,96,4
11:007,96,57,77,59,63,17,7
12:008,6798,810,73,78,8
13:009,77,29,41011,54,39,7
14:0010,27,48,310,912,24,810,2
15:0010,27,4811,312,55,110,2
16:009,77,37,811,111,94,69,7
17:009,277,610,3103,39,2
18:008,76,77,69,48,62,78,6
19:008,36,57,598,52,58,3
20:008,26,57,68,79,32,88,2
21:007,86,27,68,69,237,8
22:007,66,47,58,58,72,37,6
23:007,56,37,78,58,72,47,7
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:000,800,40000,80,20,3
01:001,500,500,401,50,50,5
02:000,900,400,100,90,30,3
03:00001,101,301,30,50,6
04:000,10,10,901010,40,4
05:000,20,10,10,1000,20,10,1
06:0000,20,602,402,40,60,9
07:0000,50,10,10,100,50,20,2
08:0000,400,2000,40,10,2
09:000,60,700,1000,70,30,3
10:000,50,100000,50,10,2
11:00000000000
12:0000,100000,100
13:0000,100000,100
14:0000,10,40000,40,10,2
15:0000,20,70000,70,20,3
16:000,60,4300030,81,1
17:001,50,520,40020,90,7
18:001,60,70,81001,60,80,5
19:000,90,80,310,10,110,60,4
20:001,90,800,90,101,90,70,7
21:003,90,80,410,30,33,91,31,3
22:002,10,40,10,70,30,12,10,70,7
23:001,60,40,60,30,30,31,60,60,5
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:003,34,22,73,63,92,74,23,50,5
01:002,26,64,54,37,72,27,75,11,9
02:005,86,14,64,38,24,38,25,81,4
03:004,86,24,83,693,695,71,9
04:004,16,643,66,53,66,651,3
05:004,76,163,92,22,26,14,61,4
06:005,65,94,24,410,14,210,162,1
07:004,36,443,12,82,86,44,11,3
08:004,77,73,21,34,31,37,74,22,1
09:0036,46,31,43,81,46,44,21,9
10:005,86,68,524,228,55,42,2
11:0046,38,726,428,75,52,3
12:005,7572,35,42,375,11,5
13:005,15,46,32,15,32,16,34,81,4
14:005,95,87,72,95,22,97,75,51,5
15:006,27,14,72,56,32,57,15,41,6
16:004,65,44,32,77,62,77,64,91,6
17:006,46,84,60,88,10,88,15,32,5
18:006,77,75,41,961,97,75,52
19:003,66,35,33,15,63,16,34,81,2
20:001,56,74,63,55,21,56,74,31,7
21:003,46,66,13,17,63,17,65,41,8
22:002,56,67,14,15,12,57,15,11,7
23:003,65,86,83,82,52,56,84,51,6
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0019,16,810,46,811,56,819,110,94,5
01:006,87,66,56,87,26,57,670,4
02:0011,98,37,97,210,87,211,99,21,8
03:006,18,697,98,36,1981
04:00922,38,66,87,66,822,310,95,8
05:001,423,812,26,85,41,423,89,97,8
06:0011,229,510,17,26,56,529,512,98,5
07:008,641,46,57,25,45,441,413,813,8
08:009,440,76,55,42,92,940,71314
09:008,341,812,22,96,12,941,814,314,1
10:0010,827,4185,43,63,627,4138,8
11:0011,512,621,66,54421,611,26,1
12:0011,524,820,56,51,81,824,8138,5
13:0016,625,218,46,16,86,125,214,67,3
14:0012,615,116,66,82,22,216,610,75,4
15:0015,128,416,96,85528,414,48,4
16:001430,221,25,88,65,830,2168,8
17:0013,730,2953,63,630,212,39,6
18:001425,210,42,942,925,211,38,1
19:0013,724,110,455,8524,111,86,9
20:0010,420,511,56,12,92,920,510,36
21:007,220,59,76,52,92,920,59,46
22:006,821,216,66,83,63,621,2116,7
23:006,819,812,26,82,22,219,89,66

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →