MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Quéant

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:001,33,74,46,34,654,4
01:001,33,34,15,94,24,64,1
02:001,22,93,85,23,643,6
03:001,12,63,44,63,23,53,2
04:000,92,33,14,52,93,62,9
05:000,81,92,84,42,63,62,6
06:000,61,52,54,22,23,62,2
07:000,31,12,23,923,62
08:0000,723,81,93,81,9
09:000,81,13,14,13,23,33,1
10:002,42,24,84,85,53,34,8
11:004,74,16,65,87,43,35,8
12:006,868,17,48,82,87,4
13:008,77,49,28,69,82,48,7
14:009,48,39,89,210,52,29,4
15:00108,910,19,310,9210
16:0010,19,19,89,110,61,59,8
17:008,58,37,88,58,60,88,5
18:005,96,66,37,37,41,56,6
19:003,95,35,86,66,82,95,8
20:002,64,45,166,43,85,1
21:001,93,94,55,56,14,24,5
22:001,53,444,95,84,34
23:001,533,44,65,74,23,4
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:00000000000
02:00000000000
03:00000000000
04:00000000000
05:00000000000
06:00000000000
07:00000000000
08:00000000000
09:00000000000
10:00000000000
11:00000000000
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:00000000000
17:00000000000
18:00000000000
19:00000000000
20:00000000000
21:00000000000
22:00000000000
23:00000000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:007,615,813,915,817,47,617,414,13,4
01:008,915,71416,717,78,917,714,63,1
02:009,716,113,916,517,19,717,114,72,7
03:009,915,813,416,216,89,916,814,42,5
04:009,714,712,515,615,89,715,813,72,3
05:0010,813,711,915,314,210,815,313,21,6
06:0010,312,410,91512,110,31512,11,6
07:009,810,710,315,511,69,815,511,62
08:008,49,510,212,810,88,412,810,31,5
09:007,18,911,413,79,77,113,710,22,2
10:008,210,29,513,511,88,213,510,61,8
11:009,410,210,113,711,79,413,7111,5
12:0010,110,89,511,810,99,511,810,60,8
13:0011,311,39,611,910,49,611,910,90,8
14:0013,799,113,111,2913,711,22
15:0011,78,29,313,412,38,213,4111,9
16:0010,57,610,211,211,37,611,310,21,3
17:008,48,77,58,710,67,510,68,81
18:006,110,27,88,210,86,110,88,61,7
19:006,110,289,710,16,110,28,81,6
20:003,710,16,96,793,710,17,32,2
21:004,19,56,23,98,63,99,56,52,3
22:002,25,45,85,16,92,26,95,11,6
23:003,32,14,64,35,42,15,43,91,1
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0010,123,823,826,340,710,140,724,99,7
01:0012,222,723,828,139,212,239,225,28,7
02:0013,723,423,828,138,213,738,225,47,9
03:001423,423,827,737,41437,425,37,6
04:001422,722,72736,71436,724,67,4
05:0015,521,221,227,434,915,534,9246,6
06:0016,619,420,225,630,216,630,222,44,9
07:0014,817,618,726,32714,82720,94,9
08:0013,714,817,625,92313,725,9194,7
09:0011,912,619,123,421,211,923,417,64,6
10:0013,715,519,123,819,813,723,818,43,5
11:0016,216,921,623,816,216,223,818,93,2
12:0017,319,121,623,8141423,819,23,4
13:0019,419,821,620,512,612,621,618,83,2
14:002219,821,622,712,212,222,719,73,9
15:002217,620,223,813,313,323,819,43,7
16:0019,815,520,22316,215,52318,92,8
17:0016,913,317,319,111,911,919,115,72,7
18:0011,51412,614,412,611,514,4131,1
19:008,613,713,316,910,48,616,912,62,9
20:007,9141316,297,916,2123,1
21:006,113,710,811,28,36,113,7102,6
22:00512,69,496,5512,68,52,6
23:003,67,68,68,64,73,68,66,62,1

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →