MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Millançay

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:004,36,765,75,52,45,7
01:003,46,35,45,44,92,95,4
02:002,75,94,25,25,23,25,2
03:003,25,75,15,24,82,55,1
04:003,85,54,4562,25
05:004,25,345,14,61,34,6
06:004,45,23,45,26,435,2
07:004,45,13,25,25,125,1
08:003,65,24,15,44,31,84,3
09:004,15,45,25,96,22,15,4
10:005,86,37,96,69,13,36,6
11:008,17,810,17,711,33,68,1
12:009,79,711,88,8134,29,7
13:0011,311,6139,714,34,611,6
14:0012,712,513,611,5153,512,7
15:0013,412,913,712,415,32,913,4
16:0013,512,613,412,415,12,713,4
17:0012,611,611,211,312,71,511,6
18:009,7109,49,310,51,29,7
19:007,88,98,689,31,58,6
20:007,27,97,67,28,91,77,6
21:006,77,17,56,78,51,87,1
22:006,46,586,38,326,5
23:006,46,27,867,81,86,4
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:0000,100000,100
02:0000,100000,100
03:00000000000
04:00000000000
05:000,10,100000,100
06:001,1000,1001,10,20,4
07:000,10,300,3000,30,10,1
08:000000,5000,50,10,2
09:000000,3000,30,10,1
10:00000000000
11:000000,1000,100
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:00000000000
17:00000000000
18:00000000000
19:0000000,200,200,1
20:00000000000
21:00000000000
22:00000000000
23:00000000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:007,49,510,59,310,97,410,99,51,2
01:008,8139,98,99,18,8139,91,6
02:008,289,59,78,189,78,70,7
03:009,210,8118,98,48,4119,71
04:009,29,810,68,28,48,210,69,20,9
05:0010,110,68,98,298,210,69,40,9
06:008,29,79,68,88,78,29,790,6
07:009,38,798,98,88,79,38,90,2
08:005,25,97,98,78,35,28,77,21,4
09:007,27,18,19,46,46,49,47,61
10:007,46,47,88,896,497,91
11:006,87,28,19,29,46,89,48,11
12:007,47,66,910,196,910,18,21,2
13:006,58,25,19,99,35,19,97,81,8
14:005,964,59,59,24,59,572
15:0065,13,77,97,73,77,96,11,6
16:004,39,42,95,76,12,99,45,72,2
17:000,47,91,85,26,50,47,94,42,8
18:0055,52,159,22,19,25,42,3
19:006,65,23,65,410,93,610,96,32,5
20:0056,24,54,89,44,59,461,8
21:004,83,64,24,69,83,69,85,42,2
22:005,63,56,649,23,59,25,82
23:006,63,45,13,893,495,62
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0017,6182220,521,617,62219,91,8
01:0013,72319,419,127,413,727,420,54,5
02:001427,718,419,823,41427,720,74,6
03:0015,818,420,919,419,415,820,918,81,7
04:0016,619,120,518,427,716,627,720,53,8
05:0017,31819,816,93116,93120,65,3
06:0019,81817,318,730,617,330,620,94,9
07:0016,617,616,91816,216,21817,10,7
08:0015,814,81817,614,414,41816,11,5
09:0012,21314,819,831,712,231,718,37,2
10:00141318,419,430,61330,619,16,3
11:0013,715,820,219,424,813,724,818,83,8
12:0015,117,620,221,62315,12319,52,8
13:0015,119,818,72218,715,12218,92,2
14:0014,819,816,22316,614,82318,13
15:001415,514,420,914,41420,915,82,6
16:0013,318,711,916,914,411,918,7152,5
17:009,419,17,211,9277,22714,97,2
18:00513,73,210,133,83,233,813,211
19:007,27,959,729,9529,911,99,1
20:007,911,27,69,730,27,630,213,38,5
21:006,18,67,29,426,66,126,611,67,6
22:007,64,39,47,96,84,39,47,21,7
23:0010,44,312,27,29,44,312,28,72,7

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →