MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Martinet

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:004,47,36,87,86,23,46,8
01:004,77,26,47,65,92,96,4
02:004,976,17,46,22,56,2
03:004,86,66,67,262,46,6
04:003,96,46,67,16,13,26,4
05:003,66,25,56,75,83,15,8
06:003,665,5662,46
07:003,95,55,95,36,32,45,5
08:004,15,26,656,72,65,2
09:0055,575,37,12,15,5
10:006,46,27,86,97,71,66,9
11:008,57,28,48,98,41,78,4
12:0010,58,49,610,69,12,29,6
13:0012,19,710,711,89,72,410,7
14:0012,510,810,712,510,61,910,8
15:0012,7121112,811,31,812
16:0012,211,911,212,811,31,611,9
17:0011,411,31112,310,61,711,3
18:0010,410,410,210,99,31,610,4
19:009,59,48,89,881,89,4
20:008,98,67,88,97,21,78,6
21:007,78,27,28,26,91,37,7
22:007,37,97,27,96,71,27,3
23:00786,97,76,61,47
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:00000000000
02:0000,100000,100
03:0000,300000,30,10,1
04:0000,200000,200,1
05:00000000000
06:00000000000
07:0000000,100,100
08:00000000000
09:00000000000
10:00000000000
11:00000000000
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:000,8000000,80,20,3
17:0000,100000,100
18:000,1000000,100
19:000,3000000,30,10,1
20:000,1000000,100
21:00000000000
22:00000000000
23:00000000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:008,914,210,99,210,68,914,210,81,9
01:009,215,311,59,410,49,215,311,22,2
02:008,814,8119,39,28,814,810,62,2
03:008,615,311,18,9108,615,310,82,4
04:008,512,410,78,411,58,412,410,31,6
05:0010,112,110,49,410,29,412,110,40,9
06:008,711,811,18,210,88,211,810,11,4
07:007,910,4107,98,37,910,48,91,1
08:008,21010,88,46610,88,71,7
09:009,2911,17,84,74,711,18,42,1
10:0011,58,79,695,85,811,58,91,8
11:0011,998,89,77,67,611,99,41,4
12:0012,29,18,58,98,18,112,29,41,5
13:0011,610,88,47,87,37,311,69,21,7
14:009,910,27,37,66,96,910,28,41,4
15:007,710,26,47,27,46,410,27,81,3
16:0011,112,95,87,37,95,812,992,6
17:009,911,51,65,46,31,611,56,93,5
18:007,610,51,92,25,41,910,55,53,3
19:001,89,14,12,33,31,89,14,12,6
20:004,78,44,22,92,72,78,44,62,1
21:004,37,942,91,91,97,94,22
22:006,98,44,632,52,58,45,12,3
23:005,210,653,23,23,210,65,42,7
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0013,722,319,416,92313,72319,13,5
01:001423,419,415,520,51423,418,63,4
02:0013,724,119,416,614,413,724,117,63,8
03:001329,219,815,814,81329,218,55,8
04:0012,625,919,114,822,712,625,9194,9
05:0014,818,718,415,822,314,822,3182,6
06:0016,21819,115,522,715,522,718,32,5
07:0014,817,319,413,318,413,319,416,62,3
08:0012,214,818,713,714,812,218,714,82,2
09:001414,419,413,710,810,819,414,52,8
10:0018,71418,715,59,49,418,715,33,5
11:0020,515,818,717,310,410,420,516,53,4
12:0021,616,619,116,911,211,221,617,13,4
13:002220,220,516,211,911,92218,23,7
14:0021,620,219,114,811,511,521,617,43,7
15:0019,420,216,214,410,810,820,216,23,4
16:0018,722,314,413,310,110,122,315,84,3
17:0019,42212,612,68,38,322155
18:0015,518,42,59,45,42,518,410,26
19:0011,515,16,53,643,615,18,14,5
20:004,712,66,843,63,612,66,33,3
21:006,111,96,14,32,92,911,96,33,1
22:007,912,27,24,73,23,212,273,1
23:008,315,18,354415,18,13,9

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →