MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Margon

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:009,28,89,310,39,31,59,3
01:008,88,58,710,29,11,78,8
02:008,78,38,210,19,61,98,7
03:008,68,37,710,29,62,58,6
04:008,88,97,7109,72,38,9
05:008,79,38,710,19,91,49,3
06:009,39,59,79,99,60,69,6
07:00109,7101010,81,110
08:0010,69,81010,710,70,910,6
09:0010,99,810,711,811,3210,9
10:0011,39,91213,112,63,212
11:0012,19,912,114,311,84,412,1
12:0012,110,311,814,911,94,611,9
13:0012,510,512,31513,64,512,5
14:0012,910,512,815,313,94,812,9
15:0012,410,412,81514,24,612,8
16:0012,410,412,914,814,34,412,9
17:0012,310,61214,614,6412,3
18:0012,110,711,114,313,83,612,1
19:0012,210,81114,2143,412,2
20:0011,910,810,813,914,13,311,9
21:0011,210,810,51414,23,711,2
22:001110,81013,914,14,111
23:0010,410,99,913,813,63,910,9
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:000000,1000,100
01:000000,1000,100
02:0000000,100,100
03:0000,300000,30,10,1
04:0000,500000,50,10,2
05:0000,900000,90,20,4
06:0000,700000,70,10,3
07:0001,6000,101,60,30,6
08:0002,700,20,402,70,71
09:0002,800,10,602,80,71,1
10:00040,10,21041,11,5
11:00051,20,21,4051,61,8
12:0004,351,21,7052,41,9
13:0004,36,12,43,406,13,22
14:0004,32,22,73,904,32,61,5
15:005,63,40,463,50,463,82
16:005,42,406,33,706,33,62,2
17:000,13,70,46,44,30,16,432,4
18:0004,11,46,63,806,63,22,3
19:000,46,50,17,73,80,17,73,73,1
20:000,15,10,78,14,30,18,13,73
21:0002,54,87,45,207,442,5
22:0001,30,95,95,205,92,72,4
23:0000,40,24,94,804,92,12,3
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0016,613,116,213,912,212,216,614,41,7
01:0018,211,916,315,312,311,918,214,82,4
02:0017,910,413,812,814,210,417,913,82,4
03:0018,410,412,18,418,48,418,413,54,1
04:0015,613,8127,220,27,220,213,84,3
05:0010,514,612,66,317,86,317,812,43,9
06:009,315,211,25,918,45,918,4124,4
07:0011,318,9126,217,56,218,913,24,6
08:0014,820,311,97,418,77,420,314,64,7
09:0016,619,612,48,117,48,119,614,84,1
10:0019,116,815,89,714,69,719,115,23,1
11:0019,114,61513,618,213,619,116,12,2
12:0016,813,814,616,513,713,716,815,11,3
13:0018,811,913,314,518,111,918,815,32,7
14:0017,412,113,518,220,512,120,516,33,1
15:0016,116,915,124,219,615,124,218,43,3
16:0015,617,515,823,420,215,623,418,53
17:0016,117,311,722,821,611,722,817,94
18:001217,18,121,516,88,121,515,14,6
19:0014,319,17,119,117,77,119,115,54,5
20:0010,215,89,51717,59,517,5143,4
21:005,715,912,215,616,55,716,513,24
22:0012,913,91013,917,21017,213,62,3
23:00714,79,612,212,9714,711,32,7
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0031,325,626,626,327,425,631,327,42
01:0028,120,926,327,426,620,928,125,92,6
02:0028,818,425,627,425,918,428,825,23,6
03:0029,224,821,22331,321,231,325,93,8
04:0029,243,218,715,133,115,143,227,910,1
05:0024,145,420,212,224,512,245,425,311
06:0015,838,220,511,222,711,238,221,79,2
07:0016,935,319,410,843,210,843,225,112,1
08:002335,318,71333,81335,324,88,6
09:002734,919,814,426,614,434,924,57
10:0031,334,925,617,626,617,634,927,25,9
11:003134,234,625,634,625,634,6323,5
12:0035,638,23629,942,129,942,136,44
13:0037,834,233,530,237,830,237,834,72,9
14:003130,229,933,133,129,933,131,51,4
15:0032,828,125,943,933,525,943,932,86,2
16:0035,329,927,443,631,727,443,633,65,6
17:002728,825,642,527,425,642,530,36,2
18:0031,729,519,841,420,919,841,428,77,9
19:0021,632,41338,517,31338,524,69,5
20:0021,63216,933,814,814,833,823,87,8
21:0020,22720,23116,216,23122,95,3
22:0021,626,319,828,118,718,728,122,93,7
23:0019,825,616,22718,416,22721,44,2

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →