MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Maillane

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:007,912,278,99,75,28,9
01:007,412,36,78,99,65,68,9
02:007,312,26,98,89,75,38,8
03:007,312,26,68,79,85,68,7
04:006,911,76,68,69,75,18,6
05:006,710,16,48,69,93,78,6
06:006,98,86,78,89,738,8
07:007,18,478,89,82,88,4
08:007,28,878,89,92,98,8
09:007,79,57,99,410,62,99,4
10:009,310,49,310,112,93,610,1
11:001110,811,110,914,94,111
12:0011,911,611,91217,25,611,9
13:0012,112,212,412,5185,912,4
14:0011,713,111,812,917,86,112,9
15:0012,413,412,613,217,85,413,2
16:0012,112,712,613,116,94,812,7
17:0011,511,812,112,715,13,612,1
18:00111111,212,113,92,911,2
19:0010,810,610,411,813,93,510,8
20:0010,810,110,211,413,43,310,8
21:0010,99,61011,113,23,610,9
22:0010,99,49,911,113,4410,9
23:0010,899,711,113,14,110,8
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00100,30,20,4010,40,3
01:000,500,20,50,300,50,30,2
02:0000,80,80,70,200,80,50,3
03:000,41,36,10,70,30,36,11,82,2
04:0001,42,70,80,402,71,10,9
05:0001,20,21,10,501,20,60,5
06:000,30,90,11,20,20,11,20,50,4
07:000,20,60,10,90,30,10,90,40,3
08:000,50,400,40,200,50,30,2
09:0000,500,90,100,90,30,4
10:0000,20,11,10,401,10,40,4
11:0000,70,40,90,100,90,40,3
12:0001,20,90,8001,20,60,5
13:0000,730,90,1030,91,1
14:000,10,21,30,70,10,11,30,50,5
15:0000,40,20,70,100,70,30,2
16:000,11,400,90,101,40,50,6
17:0001,30,10,70,101,30,40,5
18:000,110,110,20,110,50,4
19:000,20,91,51,60,30,21,60,90,6
20:000,20,71,61,40,40,21,60,90,5
21:000,20,20,21,10,60,21,10,50,4
22:000,100,610,4010,40,4
23:00600,21,40,4061,62,3
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0012,325,17,88,49,97,825,112,76,4
01:005,325,28,78,48,95,325,211,37,1
02:005,325,58,48,16,45,325,510,77,5
03:006,120,25,17,69,55,120,29,75,5
04:006,112,37,35,48,65,412,37,92,4
05:008,489,46,19,86,19,88,31,3
06:009,210,912,56,911,26,912,510,11,9
07:009,511,310,77,610,67,611,39,91,3
08:008,64,910,87,610,74,910,88,52,2
09:0094,310,16,89,74,310,182,2
10:004,39,88,58,8104,3108,32,1
11:007,910,78,59,311,57,911,59,61,3
12:0014,38,911,58,613,18,614,311,32,3
13:001610,713,97,617,77,617,713,23,6
14:0018,910,813,47,217,87,218,913,64,3
15:0015,99,711,15,617,15,617,111,94,2
16:0012,77,49,44,812,54,812,79,43
17:0014,87,16,747,9414,88,13,6
18:0016,73,793,46,63,416,77,94,9
19:0010,56,69,93,26,93,210,57,42,6
20:0015,77,410,23,273,215,78,74,1
21:00199,29,33,67,63,6199,75,1
22:0010,59,99,2410,5410,58,82,5
23:00107,57,74,310,54,310,582,2
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0024,847,916,916,924,816,947,926,311,4
01:0020,25014,815,525,914,85025,313
02:0012,649,31814,816,912,649,322,313,6
03:001447,524,114,817,31447,523,512,5
04:0013,737,825,213,311,511,537,820,310
05:0011,930,216,610,417,310,430,217,37
06:0017,626,62212,220,512,226,619,84,8
07:0022,322,722,313,316,213,322,719,43,9
08:0017,319,819,81416,21419,817,42,2
09:00147,220,21317,67,220,214,44,4
10:0012,616,620,216,22312,62317,73,6
11:0015,119,119,417,333,515,133,520,96,5
12:0023,420,52217,333,117,333,123,35,3
13:0026,620,23115,829,515,83124,65,8
14:0032,421,626,313,730,613,732,424,96,7
15:0030,622,723,413,318,713,330,621,75,7
16:0025,918,720,910,116,210,125,918,45,2
17:0023,420,215,88,615,88,623,416,85
18:0025,616,215,17,2137,225,615,46
19:0025,915,516,25,8135,825,915,36,5
20:002715,817,65,813,75,827166,8
21:003115,517,36,112,26,13116,48,2
22:0031,316,929,97,213,77,231,319,89,4
23:0020,215,816,97,617,67,620,215,64,3

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →