MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Lyon

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:005,73,54,33,16,134,3
01:005,43,13,92,95,933,9
02:00533,52,75,733,5
03:004,233,22,55,533,2
04:004,22,62,82,552,52,8
05:003,92,22,52,44,72,52,5
06:003,81,92,22,34,42,52,3
07:004,51,622,74,22,92,7
08:004,41,51,92,64,32,92,6
09:005,12,72,93,75,22,53,7
10:005,94,84,65,46,82,25,4
11:007,16,75,76,47,82,16,7
12:008,38,16,67,48,21,78,1
13:009,19,17,18,29,82,79,1
14:009,79,68,18,710,52,49,6
15:009,99,98,1910,72,69,9
16:0010,2107,7910,52,810
17:00109,37,48,69,92,69,3
18:009,58,37,38,29,42,28,3
19:008,77,67,17,791,97,7
20:008,27,1779,12,17,1
21:0086,56,46,58,62,26,5
22:008,165,66,58,73,16,5
23:007,35,55,36,27,82,56,2
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:00000000000
02:00000000000
03:00000000000
04:00000000000
05:00000000000
06:00000000000
07:00000000000
08:00000000000
09:00000000000
10:00000000000
11:00000000000
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:00000000000
17:00000000000
18:00000000000
19:000000,1000,100
20:00000000000
21:0000000,200,200,1
22:0000000,100,100
23:00000000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:004,66,50,23,53,30,26,53,62,1
01:002,36,40,43,32,60,46,432
02:003,65,90,932,90,95,93,31,6
03:002,15,41,23,11,81,25,42,71,5
04:002,64,42,53,32,92,54,43,10,7
05:004,43,64,234,534,53,90,6
06:003,13,71,954,51,953,61,1
07:003,33,60,92,93,90,93,92,91,1
08:004,34,11,93,64,61,94,63,71
09:004,65,43,42,23,82,25,43,91,1
10:006,34,81,34,23,91,36,34,11,6
11:004,65,970,58,30,58,35,32,7
12:004,44,83,55,54,13,55,54,50,7
13:004,13,73,21,94,51,94,53,50,9
14:003,92,91,52,161,563,31,6
15:003,41,62,93,171,673,61,8
16:0042,31,52,12,41,542,50,8
17:005,92,60,91,81,90,95,92,61,7
18:007,30,42,40,51,10,47,32,32,6
19:005,23,23,11,42,61,45,23,11,2
20:000,43,72,73,12,70,43,72,51,1
21:006,94,14,12,342,36,94,31,5
22:0024,33,61,31,31,34,32,51,2
23:0053,13,12,22,92,253,30,9
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:009,47,61,17,22,91,19,45,63,1
01:007,68,31,86,82,91,88,35,52,6
02:004,77,62,26,82,92,27,64,82,1
03:006,56,84,35,81,41,46,852
04:001,46,546,52,91,46,54,32
05:005,86,896,54,34,396,51,5
06:006,857,99,75,459,771,7
07:007,27,2410,44,3410,46,62,3
08:0010,16,53,26,86,13,210,16,52,2
09:0010,16,810,88,64,74,710,88,22,2
10:0014,410,410,19,44,74,714,49,83,1
11:0015,11419,110,110,410,119,113,73,3
12:0016,61419,412,24,74,719,413,45
13:0013,31413,312,24,74,71411,53,4
14:001412,211,96,16,56,11410,13,2
15:0011,510,110,87,68,37,611,59,71,5
16:0010,87,29,77,22,92,910,87,62,7
17:0017,36,53,66,81,81,817,37,25,4
18:0012,23,652,91,11,112,253,8
19:0019,145,81,81,81,819,16,56,5
20:0011,949,75,42,52,511,96,73,5
21:0010,858,35,84410,86,82,5
22:0020,558,641,81,820,586,6
23:007,256,82,52,92,57,24,91,9

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →