MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Geloux

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:0033,84,524,32,53,8
01:002,43,43,81,64,12,53,4
02:002,33,13,31,34,12,83,1
03:002,22,93,114,13,12,9
04:002,12,530,843,22,5
05:002,82,22,70,43,93,52,7
06:003,22,42,4-0,13,942,4
07:003,72,22,4-0,23,94,12,4
08:003,82,32,8-0,34,54,82,8
09:0043,942,76,23,54
10:004,95,36,57,29,24,36,5
11:006,86,79,710,511,64,99,7
12:009,58,512,413,213,65,112,4
13:0011,910,514,11515,24,714,1
14:0013,712,515,116,116,33,815,1
15:0014,813,615,616,716,53,115,6
16:0015,113,715,416,316,12,615,4
17:0014,51313,714,714,11,714,1
18:0011,710,710,410,111,31,610,7
19:0098,59,58,410,429
20:00—6,98,679,52,67,8
21:00—5,686,38,93,37,2
22:00—4,87,56,18,63,86,8
23:00—4,3768,23,96,5
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:00000000000
02:00000000000
03:00000000000
04:00000000000
05:00000000000
06:00000000000
07:00000000000
08:00000000000
09:00000000000
10:00000000000
11:00000000000
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:00000000000
17:00000000000
18:00000000000
19:00000000000
20:00—00000000
21:00—00000000
22:00—00000000
23:00—00000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:003,44,95,24,65,53,45,54,70,7
01:004,34,45,145,545,54,70,6
02:006,15,15,14,454,46,15,10,5
03:005,55,25,34,75,44,75,55,20,3
04:006,24,75,65,45,94,76,25,60,5
05:006,17,56,25,45,75,47,56,20,7
06:006,26,37,65,46,25,47,66,30,7
07:006,55,98,15,46,55,48,16,50,9
08:005,87,67,95,85,95,87,96,60,9
09:004,78,87,54,75,84,78,86,31,6
10:005,47,15,65,66,85,47,16,10,7
11:005,665,26,87,25,27,26,20,7
12:004,86,366,36,54,86,560,6
13:004,74,86754,775,50,9
14:003,95,15,96,53,13,16,54,91,3
15:003,35,46,36,31,81,86,34,61,8
16:002,95,46,86,42,32,36,84,81,8
17:001,65,85,15,32,51,65,84,11,7
18:002,34,16,74,73,72,36,74,31,4
19:003,81,58,65,55,61,58,652,3
20:00—2,28,25,46,52,28,25,62,2
21:00—2,67,75,15,92,67,75,31,8
22:00—3,37,64,55,83,37,65,31,6
23:00—3,17,84,56,23,17,85,41,8
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:008,399,47,911,57,911,59,21,3
01:006,597,97,610,16,510,18,21,2
02:009,710,17,65,88,35,810,18,31,5
03:0010,89,48,35,895,810,88,71,6
04:0012,29,411,26,810,86,812,210,11,9
05:001312,611,57,610,47,613111,9
06:0014,420,213,37,99,47,920,2134,3
07:001410,815,58,313,78,315,512,52,6
08:001413,315,5914915,513,22,2
09:0012,618,715,810,816,910,818,7152,9
10:001318,415,815,513,71318,415,31,9
11:0013,316,615,518,412,212,218,415,22,2
12:0014,816,916,91810,110,11815,32,8
13:0013,316,916,919,17,27,219,114,74,2
14:001315,516,919,14,74,719,113,85
15:0011,916,216,9183,23,21813,25,4
16:0010,115,816,216,92,52,516,912,35,5
17:008,31414,816,61,11,116,6115,7
18:003,211,59,710,81,81,811,57,44,1
19:004,35,414,47,62,92,914,46,94
20:00—2,214,48,63,22,214,47,14,9
21:00—2,913,78,34,32,913,77,34,2
22:00—3,612,68,353,612,67,43,5
23:00—412,67,95,4412,67,53,3

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →