MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Francescas

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:004,64,25,24,14,51,14,5
01:003,93,64,72,84,51,93,9
02:003,13,13,71,94,42,53,1
03:002,23,33,42,24,42,23,3
04:002,23,43,22,34,32,13,2
05:002,73,53,52,14,32,23,5
06:002,83,63,12,24,223,1
07:003,23,73,12,34,11,83,2
08:003,83,63,22,54,21,73,6
09:0053,64,43,362,74,4
10:006,54,36,14,78,64,36,1
11:008,15,69,26,510,85,28,1
12:009,97,311,18,812,359,9
13:0011,58,912,210,813,54,611,5
14:0012,81012,912,114,54,512,8
15:0013,41113,212,914,93,913,2
16:0013,811,412,91314,93,513
17:0013,411,211,712,313,22,212,3
18:00119,89,210,211,11,910,2
19:008,88,18,38,610,42,38,6
20:007,16,77,47,89,93,27,4
21:0065,76,86,89,53,86,8
22:005,14,96,16,19,14,26,1
23:0044,45,75,48,84,85,4
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:00000000000
02:00000000000
03:00000000000
04:00000000000
05:00000000000
06:00000000000
07:00000000000
08:00000000000
09:00000000000
10:00000000000
11:00000000000
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:00000000000
17:00000000000
18:00000000000
19:00000000000
20:00000000000
21:00000000000
22:00000000000
23:00000000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:005,23,41,72,56,11,76,13,81,6
01:003,94,41,41,86,61,46,63,61,9
02:002,95,55,22,76,22,76,24,51,4
03:006,2106,12,56,62,5106,32,4
04:008,210,96,726,2210,96,82,9
05:00911,77,43,16,43,111,77,52,8
06:00811,47,43,66,53,611,47,42,5
07:00610,46,73,65,43,610,46,42,2
08:0010,38,96,546,1410,37,22,2
09:0010,49,37,44,27,94,210,47,82,1
10:0010,77,47,14,312,14,312,18,32,8
11:0010,46,37,25,8145,8148,73,1
12:008,77,57,7711,5711,58,51,6
13:009,77,96,37,1106,3108,21,4
14:007,97,66,959,159,17,31,4
15:007,68,27,167,268,27,20,7
16:006,86,97,25,15,45,17,26,30,9
17:005,85,83,844,63,85,84,80,9
18:0045,15,82,74,12,75,84,31,1
19:003,34,962,63,82,664,11,2
20:003,54,55,61,42,41,45,63,51,5
21:00455,91,631,65,93,91,5
22:002,32,5432,52,342,90,6
23:004,61,52,53,82,31,54,62,91,1
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:005,853,22,96,82,96,84,71,5
01:006,85,82,52,96,52,56,84,91,8
02:004,78,394,75,84,796,51,8
03:008,314134,75,84,7149,23,7
04:0010,815,812,64,75,84,715,89,94,2
05:0012,21813,75,86,55,81811,24,6
06:001318,414,46,85518,411,55
07:0011,217,615,16,85,45,417,611,24,7
08:0015,816,214,47,26,56,516,2124,3
09:0016,615,116,27,615,17,616,614,13,3
10:0018,415,117,38,316,98,318,415,23,6
11:001813,318,411,214,411,218,415,12,8
12:0018,715,519,813,79,79,719,815,53,6
13:001816,619,4186,16,119,415,64,8
14:0018,416,218,4135518,414,25
15:0017,616,218,412,25,85,818,4144,6
16:0015,116,217,612,26,56,517,613,53,9
17:0013,313,715,59,47,67,615,511,92,9
18:009,710,497,28,37,210,48,91,1
19:006,86,59,74,36,14,39,76,71,7
20:004,74,79,43,64,33,69,45,32,1
21:004,759,42,24,32,29,45,12,4
22:004593,25,43,295,32
23:005,82,55,45,84,32,55,84,81,3

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →