MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Évin-Malmaison

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:004,54,35,16,95,62,65,1
01:0043,94,86,45,22,54,8
02:003,53,64,464,92,54,4
03:0033,245,44,62,44
04:002,72,83,64,94,22,23,6
05:002,42,53,34,63,92,23,3
06:0022,13,14,53,62,53,1
07:001,71,72,84,33,22,62,8
08:001,31,32,64,3332,6
09:001,81,63,54,43,82,83,5
10:003,42,84,94,95,72,94,9
11:005,54,66,55,67,42,85,6
12:007,46,57,96,88,92,47,4
13:008,77,88,97,9102,28,7
14:009,68,59,68,610,72,29,6
15:009,98,99,88,911,12,29,8
16:001099,58,710,92,29,5
17:009,28,188,39,21,28,3
18:007,56,56,87,781,57,5
19:006,55,36,27,27,42,16,5
20:005,64,55,76,66,92,45,7
21:004,53,85,25,96,62,85,2
22:004,23,34,75,36,334,7
23:004,22,94,24,76,23,34,2
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:00000000000
02:00000000000
03:00000000000
04:00000000000
05:00000000000
06:00000000000
07:00000000000
08:00000000000
09:00000000000
10:00000000000
11:00000000000
12:00000000000
13:00000000000
14:00000000000
15:00000000000
16:00000000000
17:00000000000
18:00000000000
19:00000000000
20:00000000000
21:00000000000
22:00000000000
23:00000000000
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0014,217,714,914,217,114,217,715,61,5
01:0014,217,91514,817,314,217,915,81,5
02:0013,517,614,91517,613,517,615,71,6
03:0013,116,614,413,416,913,116,914,91,6
04:0013,215,313,312,215,812,215,8141,4
05:0013,113,712,711,815,911,815,913,41,4
06:0012,712,912,112,313,312,113,312,70,4
07:0012,511,311,811,511,911,312,511,80,4
08:0010,49,511,611,611,79,511,7110,9
09:009,49,710,210,511,19,411,110,20,6
10:009,79,79,310,512,39,312,310,31,1
11:009,79,49,49,810,99,410,99,80,6
12:009,510,39,110,29,89,110,39,80,4
13:008,710,48,59,99,58,510,49,40,7
14:009,88,98,610,39,48,610,39,40,6
15:0012,28,5811,411812,210,21,7
16:0010,97,28,810,210,57,210,99,51,4
17:007,28,18,28,410,27,210,28,41
18:007,79,99,26,911,16,911,191,5
19:009,89,19,97,79,57,79,99,20,8
20:009,39,7108,798,7109,30,5
21:005,898,45,585,597,31,4
22:006,97,17,94,15,74,17,96,31,3
23:0084,37,14,14,24,185,51,7
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0024,827,428,127,441,824,841,829,96,1
01:0024,12728,428,440,324,140,329,65,6
02:0024,127,428,129,24024,14029,85,4
03:00232727,728,439,22339,229,15,4
04:0022,725,22725,638,222,738,227,75,4
05:0022,722,724,52338,522,738,526,36,1
06:002220,523,423,834,920,534,924,95,1
07:0021,219,122,323,831,319,131,323,54,2
08:0020,516,221,622,729,916,229,922,24,4
09:0017,3142222,725,21425,220,24
10:0017,616,220,921,220,916,221,219,42,1
11:001816,922,320,517,316,922,3192,1
12:0018,718,422,720,514,814,822,7192,6
13:0018,419,422,320,5141422,318,92,8
14:0018,419,421,220,9131321,218,63
15:0021,616,920,922,3141422,319,13,2
16:0021,615,818,422,316,915,822,3192,6
17:0018,712,617,319,81812,619,817,32,5
18:0011,21316,216,220,511,220,515,43,2
19:0015,813,317,61416,613,317,615,51,6
20:0018,713,317,616,616,213,318,716,51,8
21:0014,813,717,616,21413,717,615,31,5
22:0011,512,214,49,78,68,614,411,32
23:0011,9913,37,65513,39,43

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →