MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Dardilly

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:004,33,85,33,632,33,8
01:0043,65,23,53,12,13,6
02:004,93,64,53,44,61,54,5
03:004,63,54,33,73,11,53,7
04:004,23,84,13,62,91,33,8
05:003,33,44,23,73,50,93,5
06:002,53,44,13,74,523,7
07:003,43,443,83,30,73,4
08:002,93,74,13,84,61,73,8
09:004,44,35,24,35,71,44,4
10:006,45,26,35,76,51,36,3
11:006,56,76,87,17,516,8
12:008,28,18,18,77,80,98,1
13:009,19,49,29,910,119,4
14:009,310,28,710,78,929,3
15:0010,110,48,71110,22,310,2
16:009,89,98,410,77,739,8
17:009,19,17,89,97,42,59,1
18:008,38,47,98,97,61,38,3
19:007,87,67,98,37,11,27,8
20:007,87,17,887,30,97,8
21:007,46,987,57,51,17,5
22:007,56,587,46,91,57,4
23:007,46,17,67,37,41,57,4
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00000000000
01:0000000,400,40,10,2
02:0000000,100,100
03:00000,20,1000,20,10,1
04:00000,20000,200,1
05:00000,30000,30,10,1
06:00000,100,100,100
07:0000,10,10000,100
08:0000000,400,40,10,2
09:000000,20,200,20,10,1
10:000,3000,1000,30,10,1
11:000000,1000,100
12:00000000000
13:00000,40000,40,10,2
14:00000,20000,200,1
15:00000000000
16:00000,300,800,80,20,3
17:000,10,12,20,30,40,12,20,60,8
18:000,501,20,4001,20,40,4
19:000,400,10,90,200,90,30,3
20:000,50,10,51,2001,20,50,4
21:000,30,20,310010,40,3
22:000,70,101,30,201,30,50,5
23:000,900,11,6001,60,50,6
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:002,651,82,14,41,853,21,3
01:001,45,92,52,23,91,45,93,21,6
02:004,75,50,51,50,80,55,52,62,1
03:0075,60,42,65,60,474,22,4
04:003,27,10,71,61,80,77,12,92,3
05:0046,41,72,35,91,76,44,11,9
06:003,74,41,12,31,91,14,42,71,2
07:003,66,20,72,52,40,76,23,11,8
08:001041,91,86,51,8104,83,1
09:005,21,51,91,14,81,15,22,91,7
10:003,33,41,71,34,11,34,12,81,1
11:006,83,13,72,72,32,36,83,71,6
12:002,642,73,14,82,64,83,40,8
13:003,34,52,83,62,42,44,53,30,7
14:004,85,43,43,883,485,11,6
15:004,26,12,34,64,82,36,14,41,2
16:008,23,72,94,542,98,24,71,8
17:006,16,32,73,74,52,76,34,71,4
18:004,34,413,5314,43,21,2
19:007,93,10,42,840,47,93,62,4
20:007,34,32,32,32,72,37,33,81,9
21:003,43,412,33,813,82,81
22:005,21,61,22,82,31,25,22,61,4
23:001,11,82,32,32,71,12,720,5
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:00135,84,35,82,22,2136,23,6
01:006,87,94,33,610,83,610,86,72,6
02:00510,45,44,31,81,810,45,42,8
03:0013,37,93,644,33,613,36,63,7
04:0011,911,92,946,82,911,97,53,8
05:002,510,84,351,81,810,84,93,2
06:007,29,44,741,11,19,45,32,8
07:004,711,94,342,52,511,95,53,3
08:001411,9443,23,2147,44,6
09:0014,83,26,83,26,13,214,86,84,3
10:00136,17,946,14137,43,1
11:0013,35,411,56,86,15,413,38,63,2
12:0013,39,711,98,33,63,613,39,43,4
13:009,412,211,99,46,86,812,29,92
14:0015,514,411,2910,8915,512,22,4
15:0010,815,19,410,19,49,415,1112,1
16:0015,814,46,893,23,215,89,84,7
17:001422,76,18,33,23,222,710,96,9
18:0012,210,84,37,23,23,212,27,53,5
19:0011,97,93,25,81,81,811,96,13,6
20:001311,9452,22,2137,24,4
21:0011,512,65,45,43,23,212,67,63,7
22:0011,98,63,251,41,411,963,8
23:007,91,83,651,81,87,942,3

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →