MétéoDemain

Comparaison des modèles météo à Celoux

Chaque modèle reste indépendant. Les statistiques décrivent leur dispersion, sans remplacer la prévision principale ni désigner un meilleur modèle.

Prévisions de demain, à échéance identique. Pluie en mm sur l’heure précédente ; vent et rafales en km/h. « — » signifie indisponible.

Température demain (°C)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSÉcartMédiane
00:001,322,62,42,51,32,4
01:002,42,53,32,42,50,92,5
02:002,12,13,72,52,21,62,2
03:001,82,23,82,72,522,5
04:001,32,64,32,92,732,7
05:001,52,94,232,92,72,9
06:001,82,94,53,42,62,72,9
07:003,22,753,91,63,43,2
08:003,22,45,43,92,833,2
09:004,92,56,24,93,23,74,9
10:0072,87,36,43,94,56,4
11:007,83,17,77,94,14,87,7
12:009,43,38,99,146,18,9
13:009,63,510,310,15,26,89,6
14:008,83,88,910,54,86,78,8
15:009,548,49,85,15,88,4
16:008,44,27,79,15,84,97,7
17:007,44,17,37,95,73,87,3
18:005,73,96,77,15,53,25,7
19:00546,26,85,42,85,4
20:004,53,96,16,85,22,95,2
21:003,84,95,66,75,12,95,1
22:003,14,65,66,44,93,34,9
23:003,144,96,24,83,14,8
Précipitations par modèle
Précipitations (mm)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0000,1000,900,90,20,4
01:000,11,3000,401,30,40,5
02:0002,300,20,102,30,50,9
03:0003,402,20,403,41,21,4
04:000201,40,2020,70,8
05:0005,201,60,105,21,42
06:0002,30,11,7002,30,81
07:0001,10,10,4001,10,30,4
08:0001,10,20,2001,10,30,4
09:00010,100,3010,30,4
10:0001,20,900,101,20,40,5
11:0001,10,300,601,10,40,4
12:0000,300,10,700,70,20,3
13:0000,20,10,31,101,10,30,4
14:000,31,10,80,31,80,31,80,90,6
15:0001,92,10,80,802,11,10,8
16:0002,81,110,402,81,11
17:000,13,42,53,40,50,13,421,4
18:00022,62,62,502,61,91
19:0001,51,61,33,503,51,61,1
20:0000,82,51,12,802,81,41,1
21:00053,411,8052,21,8
22:0003,71,70,9103,71,51,2
23:0000,11,52,10,302,10,80,8
Vent par modèle
Vent (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:008,42,57,94,44,72,58,45,62,2
01:009,45,48,62,92,62,69,45,82,8
02:0011,82,28,52,63,32,211,85,73,8
03:0010,42,87,22,24,32,210,45,43
04:009,71,87,71,92,61,89,74,73,3
05:0092,86,92,23,12,294,82,7
06:007,95,85,44,12,32,37,95,11,9
07:0012,41,86,12,73,71,812,45,33,8
08:007,12,372,92,22,27,14,32,3
09:0010,41,59,72,82,31,510,45,33,9
10:008,41,1123,13,51,1125,64
11:007,63,212,64,92,92,912,66,23,6
12:0018,53,811,111,82,92,918,59,65,7
13:009,24,112,713,35,44,113,38,93,7
14:007,52,97,313,93,62,913,973,9
15:0011,92,66,913,22,92,613,27,54,4
16:0011,50,56,411,340,511,56,74,2
17:0010,40,84,53,93,80,810,44,73,1
18:009,23,11,32,23,11,39,23,82,8
19:0081,80,62,31,10,682,82,7
20:0083,51,82,21,51,583,42,4
21:006,112,44,12,22,62,212,45,53,7
22:004,77,162,24,32,27,14,91,7
23:006,33,87,92,72,92,77,94,72
Rafales par modèle
Rafales (km/h)
HeureAROMEARPEGEECMWF IFSICONGFSMin.Max.MoyenneÉcart-type
00:0015,86,116,616,63,63,616,611,75,7
01:0016,21317,617,31,81,817,613,25,9
02:0017,68,317,314,81,81,817,6126,1
03:0019,111,516,910,84,34,319,112,55,2
04:0016,27,615,111,51,81,816,210,45,3
05:0014,812,215,1132,22,215,111,54,8
06:0015,516,914,417,31,41,417,313,15,9
07:002215,813,7182,22,22214,36,7
08:0019,416,216,615,12,22,219,413,96
09:0017,628,118,713,71,81,828,1168,5
10:0019,82325,213,32,52,525,216,88,2
11:0015,19,427,720,23,23,227,715,18,5
12:003224,828,837,42,22,237,42512,1
13:0034,210,437,438,22,92,938,224,614,9
14:0019,415,13638,23,63,638,222,513
15:0020,914,422,736,72,92,936,719,511
16:0024,113,320,234,23,63,634,219,110,3
17:0020,2422,324,56,1424,515,48,6
18:0019,416,616,912,66,16,119,414,34,7
19:0013,315,86,111,910,16,115,811,43,3
20:0011,52315,513992314,44,8
21:0011,927,49,411,95,45,427,413,27,5
22:0010,432,810,810,45532,813,99,7
23:006,811,515,59,41,11,115,58,94,8

Sources des données et licences. Les prévisions sont indicatives et susceptibles d’évoluer.

Dispersion de l’ensemble ECMWF →